The Dangers of Evasive Maneuvers and Satellite Collision Risks

Researchers have found that attempting to avoid satellite collisions in orbit actually increases the risk of future collisions due to the limitations of current space traffic management methods. After each avoidance maneuver, operators and space traffic observers have only a rough idea of the satellite's actual location, leading to inaccurate collision predictions for several days. With the increasing number of satellites in space, such uncertainties pose a significant concern. For example, SpaceX's Starlink internet megaconstellation had to perform 25,000 collision avoidance maneuvers in a six-month period, and this number is expected to double as the constellation grows. Inaccurate data after each maneuver could lead to devastating crashes, as demonstrated by the 2009 collision between the U.S. satellite Iridium 33 and Russia's Kosmos-2251. To address this issue, commercial companies are developing platforms that incorporate data about maneuvers to improve accuracy and timeliness of collision predictions.