Solar Storms Could Collapse LEO Satellite Web in Days

New analysis warns that solar storms could trigger a rapid, near-term collapse of Earth’s LEO satellite mega-constellations if command-and-control for avoidance is lost. The study introduces the CRASH Clock, estimating a catastrophic collision could occur in about 2.8 days as of mid-2025 (versus 121 days in 2018), and a 24-hour outage carries roughly a 30% chance of seeding long-term debris cascades. Solar storms heat the atmosphere, increasing drag and degrading orbit predictions while possibly disabling satellite navigation and communications, leaving many satellites unable to dodge each other. Authored by Sarah Thiele and colleagues and posted on arXiv, the work argues for real-time tracking and control to prevent a “house of cards” collapse of space infrastructure, a risk underscored by the 2024 Gannon storm and the historic Carrington Event.