Short-sellers are giving up as the S&P 500 Index continues to reach record highs, marking its best performance since 2021, according to Citigroup strategists. Investor positioning in S&P 500 futures is heavily skewed, with short-sellers increasingly capitulating as the index sets new highs for the fourth consecutive week.
Citigroup Inc. strategists warn that bullish investor positioning in US technology stocks could lead to a wider market rout if a selloff occurs, with wagers on declines in tech-heavy Nasdaq 100 futures completely erased. Despite a rally in US stocks and record highs in the S&P 500, caution is growing due to signals that the Federal Reserve may not cut interest rates as early as March, leading to stalled bullish trends in S&P 500 futures.
The recent regulatory actions against Binance and Coinbase provide a real-world case study in the importance of market expectations and investor positioning in event price moves. Additional regulatory action against Coinbase was more certain than against Binance, which may explain the difference in market reaction. Leveraged money managers' net positioning for bitcoin and ether futures are net short and at one-year lows, confirming bearish expectations for the crypto market. Market reflexivity, as pioneered by George Soros, suggests that investor perceptions and behavior impact market conditions, which, in turn, impact and shape investor beliefs and actions.