All articles tagged with #atlantic basin
NOAA has issued its most aggressive hurricane season forecast on record, predicting 17-25 named storms, with 8-13 becoming hurricanes and 4-7 potentially major. This hyperactive season is attributed to warm Atlantic waters and a diminishing El Niño. The forecast aligns with other agencies, suggesting a high likelihood of an above-average season, with significant impacts possible for the U.S. and Caribbean.
Colorado State University's first outlook for the 2024 hurricane season predicts around 23 named storms in the Atlantic basin, with nearly half becoming hurricanes. The report highlights states and regions with above or below average chances of a cyclone passing through, with the highest odds for a strike in the Caribbean. Landfall probabilities are linked to the expected Accumulated Cyclone Energy, which is forecasted to be 170% of an average season. The switch to La Niña this year may lead to storms coming farther west and into the Caribbean, potentially affecting the Gulf and Florida.
Colorado State University's annual April hurricane forecast predicts an "extremely active" Atlantic hurricane season for 2024, estimating 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and 5 major hurricanes. The forecast attributes this to record warm sea-surface temperatures in the Atlantic, creating favorable conditions for hurricane formation. Additionally, the potential shift from El Niño to La Niña by peak hurricane season may further enhance hurricane formation.
Tropical Storm Tammy has formed in the Atlantic, prompting Tropical Storm watches for the eastern Caribbean. The storm is expected to threaten the northern Leeward Islands with gusty winds and heavy rain. With 20 tropical storms and six hurricanes so far this season, the Atlantic hurricane season is running slightly above average. Tammy is currently located less than 700 miles east of the Lesser Antilles and is forecasted to gradually turn west-northwest. While some strengthening is anticipated, it is expected to remain below hurricane status. Tropical Storm watches have been issued for Barbados, Dominica, Martinique, and Guadeloupe. The storm is forecasted to approach the Lesser Antilles on Friday and could become a strong tropical storm.
Tropical Storm Rina has developed in the Atlantic Basin, while Tropical Storm Philippe maintains its strength nearby. Forecasters are closely monitoring both storms as their tracks and intensities are influenced by each other. The interaction between the two systems, known as the Fujiwhara effect, could determine which storm becomes dominant and controls the path of the other. The forecast for both storms is uncertain due to their proximity and potential interaction.
Tropical Storm Franklin is currently located in the eastern Caribbean and is expected to bring significant rainfall and the threat of flash flooding to Hispaniola. It may also become a hurricane in the Bermuda Triangle later this week or weekend. Other active areas being monitored in the Atlantic Basin include Tropical Depression Gert, a Gulf of Mexico system heading towards South Texas, and a disturbance called Invest 92L. Three tropical cyclones forming in a 24-hour period is a rare occurrence in the Atlantic.
Multiple potential tropical systems are developing in the Atlantic Basin, including the Gulf of Mexico, with four areas showing a range of formation chances.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring a disturbance in the Central Atlantic that could potentially develop into a subtropical or tropical depression or storm over the next few days. Three tropical waves are also being watched. While warm water and light winds may aid in tropical development, the system is expected to move into cooler waters, limiting further development. It is too early to determine if there will be any impact on the U.S. from the disturbance or tropical waves. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the season occurring around September 10.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, but no tropical development is expected in the next seven days. The waves are moving off the west coast of Africa into the Atlantic, but the presence of Saharan dust and strong wind shear make it unlikely for a tropical system to form. It is too early to determine if there will be any impact on the U.S., and residents are advised to continue monitoring the tropics and staying prepared. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the season occurring on September 10.
The National Hurricane Center is monitoring four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, with two located in the Caribbean Sea. Dry air and strong wind shear have kept the tropics quiet, but conditions could change early this month. No new tropical cyclones are expected in the next seven days, providing a calm week for Floridians. It is too early to determine if there will be any impact on the US from these tropical waves. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30, with the peak of the season occurring on September 10.
Tropical Storm Bret weakened in the Caribbean after bringing heavy rain and strong winds to parts of the eastern Caribbean. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Cindy formed east of the Lesser Antilles, becoming the second rare June deep tropics storm. The combination of Bret and Cindy made history as the first time two tropical storms formed east of the Lesser Antilles in June. Ocean warmth contributed to the development of both storms, with water temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean between Africa and the Lesser Antilles smashing mid-June records.
Tropical Storm Cindy is expected to strengthen but remain below hurricane strength as it moves over open waters in the Atlantic basin. After 48 hours, Cindy is expected to weaken due to wind shear and dry air. The storm is not likely to impact land as it remains well north of the Greater Antilles. Excessive rainfall is forecasted.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking two tropical storms, Cindy and Bret, in the Atlantic basin. Bret is expected to weaken and become a tropical depression due to wind shear in the Caribbean Sea, while Cindy is not likely to impact land. This is the first time since 1968 that two named storms have occurred in the Atlantic in June at the same time. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30, with the peak of the season on Sept. 10.
The National Hurricane Center is tracking four tropical waves in the Atlantic basin, including one in the Caribbean. No tropical cyclone development is expected over the next seven days. AccuWeather meteorologists are tracking the potential for activity to increase in the western Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico later this month, pointing to several factors that could foster tropical development. It's too early to determine if there will be any impact to the U.S. from the tropical waves. The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 through Nov. 30.
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has officially declared the presence of El Niño, a natural climate phenomenon marked by warmer-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean near the equator. For hurricane season, the Atlantic basin tends to see a less-active year in terms of the number of storms due to increased wind shear during El Niño. However, the extremely warm Atlantic basin provides higher-than-normal uncertainty as to how the season will play out.