Unprecedented El Niño and Record Ocean Temperatures Shake Up Hurricane Season

The remainder of the hurricane season is expected to be eventful and exceptional due to unusually warm ocean temperatures and a slow-to-emerge El Niño. The Atlantic hurricane season has already been above average with 18 named storms. Normally, the number of storms decreases by the end of October, but this year, high sea surface temperatures could expand the reach of storm formation into the late season. The clash between warm ocean temperatures and the effect of El Niño has posed a forecasting challenge, but the warmer ocean temperatures and weaker winds are currently winning. Any tropical system that forms would likely be strengthened by the exceptionally warm water. The Atlantic is in uncharted waters, making it difficult to make confident forecasts.