Moon could glow like Venus if 2024 YR4 hits in 2032, new simulations suggest

A new arXiv preprint reports that asteroid 2024 YR4, about 60 meters across, has a 4.3% chance of striking the Moon in 2032. Using 10,000 simulated trajectories, researchers map a ~3,000 km impact corridor just north of Tycho crater. The impact could unleash about 6.5 megatons of TNT energy, producing a Venus-bright flash (-2.5 to -3 magnitude) lasting 3–5 minutes and visible from Earth under favorable lighting, with a minority (about 2.85%) of flashes observable from our side of the Moon’s illuminated face. The event could eject up to 100 million kilograms of lunar rocks toward Earth, potentially triggering thousands of secondary flashes and “super meteor storms” over days to weeks. The findings are not yet peer‑reviewed.