Oil Shock Looms as Hormuz Disruption Drains Global Buffers

A month into the Strait of Hormuz disruption, oil prices have risen but not yet peaked, as roughly 11–12 million barrels per day are blocked and about 500 million barrels have been drawn from buffers. Reserves releases and sanctions have cushioned the shock, but analysts warn those buffers are fading and the system is tighter now. With lagging tanker arrivals and offline refining capacity, the market could face sharper price moves and regional shortages if the disruption persists, potentially reaching very high prices and broader supply issues before a full crisis materializes.