US Job Growth Slows in November as Strikes End, Testing Soft Landing Narrative

US job growth is expected to have picked up in November as striking workers returned, but the underlying trend suggests a cooling labor market. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep interest rates unchanged, as employment gains remain above the necessary level to keep up with population growth. However, financial market expectations of rate cuts in early 2024 may be dampened. Nonfarm payrolls are forecast to have increased by 180,000 jobs, lower than the monthly average this year. Demand for workers is moderating due to rate hikes, and there is anecdotal evidence of slowing hiring. The unemployment rate is expected to remain unchanged at 3.9%, and average hourly earnings are forecast to rise moderately by 0.3%.