Beijing's Confidence Could Fray the Fragile U.S.-China Truce

Thomas J. Christensen argues that China’s perceived success in pressuring the U.S. last year has boosted Beijing’s confidence, but while China is powerful it is not a true peer to the United States. With the upcoming Trump-Xi summit, the Busan truce remains fragile as key issues—transshipment tariffs, rare-earths, fentanyl controls, and high-end semiconductors—were left unresolved. A more confident China could retaliate against U.S. pressure or push its leverage on Taiwan and in Europe, the Middle East, and Latin America, risking renewed tensions. The United States still enjoys advantages through its alliances, technology access, and the dollar, but misperceptions on both sides could derail the gains of 2025 and spur new escalation.