The Future of Recessions: Implications for Investors

A mathematical model developed by engineer Georg Vrba and RecessionAlert.com CEO Dwaine van Vuuren suggests that if the US unemployment rate rises to 4.0% or higher in September, there is a 73% probability of a recession occurring in October. The model, which accurately predicted the 2020 recession, takes into account economic data and recessions dating back to 1948. Meanwhile, experts are divided on the likelihood of an upcoming recession, with some pointing to recent economic growth and a resilient labor market as indicators that a recession may be avoided. The Federal Reserve's ongoing interest rate hikes and inflation concerns could also impact the likelihood of a recession.