Recession Prediction Economist: Litmus Test Arrives as Oil Nears $100 a Barrel

Economist David Rosenberg, who has been predicting a recession for the past 18 months, believes that the "litmus test" for his prediction is finally here, especially with oil prices heading towards $100 a barrel. Despite facing criticism and being premature in his previous recession calls, Rosenberg maintains his bearish forecast, citing rising interest rates, slowing consumer spending, and the waning impact of fiscal stimulus as key factors. He argues that the U.S. economy heavily relies on consumer spending, which makes up 70% of GDP, and that the boost from infrastructure and manufacturing sectors won't be as impactful. Rosenberg's previous recession calls in 2007 turned out to be correct, but his 2012 prediction did not materialize.