economy-and-finance3.415 min read
"2024 Economic Forecast: Key Drivers and Surprises Shaping the Global Market"
2 years ago•Source: Markets Insider
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1.425 min•2 years ago
"10-Year Treasury Yields Surge as Strong Jobs Data Dampen Rate Cut Expectations"
The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note surged above 4% following a December jobs report that exceeded expectations, indicating a robust labor market. This could influence the Federal Reserve's decision on interest rate cuts, with some Wall Street expectations for a cut being pushed back. The strong jobs data, with 216,000 positions added in December, suggests the Fed may maintain its current policy longer than some investors anticipated.
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"Expert Insights: Navigating the 2024 Housing Market and Mortgage Rates"
Logan Mohtashami predicts a similar range for the 10-year yield in 2024 as in 2023, with mortgage rates potentially dropping to sub-5% if economic conditions weaken. Home prices are expected to see low single-digit growth unless mortgage rates stay low and new listings don't increase, which could drive prices higher. Existing home sales need lower rates for growth, while new home sales could benefit from builders' ability to offer lower rates. The economic outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with no immediate recession concerns unless jobless claims rise significantly. Mohtashami emphasizes the importance of tracking weekly housing market data to stay informed of rapid changes.
"Forecasting the Fed: Interest Rate Cuts and the 2024 Economic Outlook"
UBS chief US economist Jonathan Pingle predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates below 3% by December 2023, starting with a quarter-point cut in March. This forecast is based on the expectation of a mild recession in 2024, driven by a pullback in consumer spending. Pingle's projection of more than 225 basis points in cuts is significantly deeper than current market expectations and the Fed's own projections. The anticipated easing cycle is in response to a slowing economy and aims to prevent severe economic downturns, with a "soggy 2024" expected due to reduced consumer support.