"Forecasting the Fed: Interest Rate Cuts and the 2024 Economic Outlook"

UBS chief US economist Jonathan Pingle predicts that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates below 3% by December 2023, starting with a quarter-point cut in March. This forecast is based on the expectation of a mild recession in 2024, driven by a pullback in consumer spending. Pingle's projection of more than 225 basis points in cuts is significantly deeper than current market expectations and the Fed's own projections. The anticipated easing cycle is in response to a slowing economy and aims to prevent severe economic downturns, with a "soggy 2024" expected due to reduced consumer support.