Oil prices are rising due to expectations of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, not the recent Middle East cease-fire, with traders betting that lower borrowing costs will boost demand for crude.
Oil prices declined after Saudi Arabia cut official selling prices for all regions, with West Texas Intermediate experiencing its biggest drop in almost two months, settling below $71 a barrel. The move by state producer Saudi Aramco to lower its flagship Arab Light price to Asia by $2 a barrel, more than expected, reflects persistent weakness in the global market, with pricing at its lowest since November 2021.
Oil prices rose on Monday as market participants anticipate that global demand will outpace supply. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) traded above $91 a barrel, following a nearly 30% increase in the previous quarter. Speculators have increased their bullish wagers on WTI, expecting a tightening in the global crude market.
Goldman Sachs has lowered its year-end price target on Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) due to significant supply beats from Iran and Russia, which have driven speculative positioning to near record-lows. The firm now predicts Brent will cost $86 per barrel, down from a prior forecast of $95, while WTI is predicted to cost $81 per barrel, compared to the previous prediction of $89. However, the analysts are more bullish on crude going into next year, with a forecast that rising emerging market demand, slowing US supply, and OPEC cuts will lift Brent to $93/bbl by May 2024.
The U.S. Energy Information Administration has raised its oil price forecasts for 2023 and 2024, with Brent crude expected to average $85.01 a barrel this year and prices in 2024 at $81.21 a barrel. The increase is attributed to OPEC cuts, with expectations for the cost of West Texas Intermediate also raised by a similar amount.