A significant decline in US immigration, especially at the southern border, is causing a major supply shock to the economy, potentially more impactful than tariffs, by slowing labor force growth and influencing monetary policy and currency value.
Bitcoin's recent price surge is attributed more to a post-halving supply shock than to Donald Trump's election victory, according to Onramp Bitcoin co-founder Jesse Myers. The April halving reduced block rewards, creating a supply-demand imbalance that drives prices higher. This pattern has historically led to predictable bubbles post-halving, as seen in previous cycles. Analysts suggest Bitcoin's scarcity and market dynamics will continue to push its value upward, with only 1.2 million BTC left to be mined.
Experts predict that the upcoming halving of Bitcoin may not have as much of an impact on its price as in previous cycles due to the strong demand from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs), which have already pushed Bitcoin to new highs. While the halving historically causes upward pressure on Bitcoin's price, the approval of spot ETFs may have preempted its impact on supply. However, in the long term, the halving may still have a positive effect on Bitcoin's price and subsequently on ETF flows, as it accentuates the appeal of Bitcoin as an asset class to institutional investors and creates a supply shortage that impacts ETF flows.
The ban on nearly all Palestinian workers entering Israel following a terror attack has caused a supply shock to the Israeli economy, particularly in the construction and agriculture sectors, with potential impacts on prices. The ban has also hurt the economy of the West Bank and led to pressure on lawmakers to allow some workers to return. The Finance Ministry warned of significant economic damage, and the central bank governor emphasized the need to monitor price developments and prevent financial instability in the face of potential expansion of the war.