
Sanctions squeeze Russia's oil revenue, tightening the budget amid a slowing war economy
Western sanctions and EU bans on Russian oil refined products have cut Russia's January oil and gas tax revenue to 393 billion rubles—the lowest since COVID—pushing Moscow to borrow from banks and raise taxes as growth stalls. A price cap, a growing shadow fleet of sanctioned tankers, and reduced demand from buyers like India keep revenues volatile, while Urals sell at a deep discount to Brent. Moscow relies on reserves and higher taxes (VAT up to 22%) to prop up the budget, but inflation risk grows as growth slows (Q3 GDP 0.1%, forecasts 0.6–0.9% this year).





