Concerns over AI spending are negatively affecting industrial stocks, while President Trump has criticized defense stocks, contributing to market volatility and investor unease.
The stock market experienced declines following recent inflation data and comments from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, with the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite all down. Industrials were particularly affected, dropping 1.7%, while the consumer discretionary sector fell 1.3%, led by Tesla's 5.2% decline. Concerns over potential government spending cuts by Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy are impacting stocks with high government exposure, affecting sectors like IT, aerospace, and engineering.
Zacks Investment Management Director Brian Mulberry recommends 3M as a "Good Buy" due to improved supply chain, potential margin savings, strong cash flow, and increased dividends, while advising against RTX Corp. due to foreign exchange headwinds, high interest rates, and Chinese sanctions on Taiwan impacting growth prospects in the industrial sector.
Industrial and transportation companies saw a rally in their shares after the Federal Reserve indicated that its next move would likely be a rate cut. Fed Chairman Jerome Powell stated that interest rates had likely peaked or were close to a peak. The market seemed to overlook lower GDP growth and higher unemployment as potential catalysts for additional rate cuts. In other news, defense contractor Lockheed Martin secured a court ruling to resume titanium shipments for the F-35 program that had been suspended due to a pricing dispute.
US small-cap and industrial stocks are dropping, signaling a potential recession, but some investors are dismissing the moves as noise for now. The S&P 500 Industrials index is down about 8% since August 1, and the small-cap Russell 2000 Index has lost over 11% from its July 31 closing high. Investors are pulling money from equity funds at the fastest pace since December. However, there is hope for stocks as earnings season approaches, with companies expected to post profit declines of just 1.1% in the third quarter. The Federal Reserve also forecasts stronger economic growth than expected. Some investors see the recent drops as a buying opportunity, while others caution that it's too soon to say if the stock market is signaling a recession.
Almost all sectors of the S&P 500 are experiencing losses, with consumer discretionary stocks leading the declines, followed by industrials. Financials is the only sector in the green.
Fidelity strategist Denise Chisholm suggests three surprising investing ideas. First, she believes the tech stock rally may have room to run, as historical data shows that when tech stocks outperform despite declining profits, the sector's earnings tend to more than double over the next 12 months. Second, Chisholm is bullish on consumer discretionary stocks due to their cheap valuations, falling inflation, and historically positive performance during periods of low bank lending. Lastly, she sees potential in industrials, as the sector's relative valuations are at their lowest and a drop in the Institute for Supply Management manufacturing new orders index historically leads to outperformance. Chisholm's research suggests reasons to remain positive on the stock market, particularly in the technology, consumer discretionary, and industrials sectors.
The transport and industrial sectors are both reaching new highs, indicating that the market rally is expanding beyond just a few sectors. This broadening of the rally suggests increased confidence in the overall economy and could be a positive sign for investors.