Several US Federal Reserve officials expressed opposition to the recent interest rate cut, emphasizing concerns about inflation and signaling a potential pause or hike in December, highlighting ongoing debates within the Fed about balancing inflation control and supporting the labor market.
New York Fed president John Williams and Boston Fed President Susan Collins reassured investors that interest rates could still be cut this year despite recent inflation spikes, with Williams expecting gradual rate reductions starting this year and Collins needing more data to confirm a sustained drop in inflation. The recent chaotic market response to higher-than-expected inflation readings led to reduced expectations of rate cuts in 2024, with Fed officials uncertain about the persistence of high inflation and expressing readiness to respond to the economic outlook.
The EUR/USD reached mid-term highs last week before experiencing a selloff due to reduced trading volume during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday. However, the currency pair's ability to climb higher during light trading suggests that behavioral sentiment believes it had been oversold. As trading volume returns to normal this week, speculators will be watching for momentum and the impact of speeches by U.S. Fed officials. While reversals lower are possible, if risk appetite and equity indices remain strong, the EUR/USD could continue to rise. Day traders should use risk management and conservative leverage, with a speculative price range of 1.08290 to 1.10470.
Asian markets are expected to open higher following a day of surprising gains across global markets, despite geopolitical tensions. Gold and oil saw significant increases, while the dollar weakened and Wall Street recovered losses. The rebound in risk sentiment was driven by comments from two Fed officials suggesting that the recent rise in long-term bond yields and tightening of financial conditions may mean the Fed is done raising rates. The IMF and World Bank annual meetings in Morocco begin, with key policymakers in attendance. Additionally, four U.S. Fed officials are scheduled to deliver speeches, which could impact market enthusiasm. China's property sector is also in focus as Country Garden, the country's largest private lender, may announce a restructuring plan for its offshore debt.
Federal Reserve officials have defended their decision to raise interest rates despite criticism from President Trump, citing high inflation and a strong economy. The Fed has raised rates four times this year, with the latest increase coming last week. Trump has repeatedly criticized the Fed's actions, arguing that they will slow economic growth. However, Fed officials have maintained that the rate hikes are necessary to prevent the economy from overheating.