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Economic Forecasting

All articles tagged with #economic forecasting

financeeconomics1 year ago

"Bernanke's Call for Clearer Guidance on Rates and Inflation Forecasting"

Former US Federal Reserve chair Ben Bernanke has recommended that the Bank of England (BOE) consider publishing its own outlook for UK interest rates as part of a comprehensive review of its forecasting and communication practices. Bernanke's 86-page review highlighted the need for the BOE to provide clearer guidance on interest rates and to scrap the fan charts that have been central to its policymaking for over two decades. While the BOE welcomed the report and committed to implementing all 12 of Bernanke's recommendations, it stated that changes would be phased in gradually and likely implemented after the next election. Bernanke also suggested that the BOE should publish alternative scenarios alongside its central forecast and revamp its economic models and infrastructure.

via Yahoo Finance|
#bank-of-england#ben-bernanke#economic-forecasting
economics1 year ago

"Top Economists Forecast 2024 Economic Outlook with Remarkable Accuracy"

An economics professor at St Mary’s University in Texas, Román, outperformed major banks in her 2023 economic predictions, accurately forecasting GDP growth, inflation, unemployment, and interest rates. She attributes her success to her diverse background and experience in the private and NGO sectors. For 2024, she anticipates a slight dip in growth to around 2.6%, but remains optimistic about the economy's overall momentum, despite potential challenges from the presidential election.

via Business Insider|
#economic-forecasting#economics#inflation
economics1 year ago

"Small Texas College Economics Professor Shares Spookily Accurate 2023 Predictions"

Belinda Román, an economics professor at St. Mary's University in San Antonio, accurately predicted economic figures for 2023 and is now offering insights for 2024, expecting higher GDP growth and job gains than the consensus. She also anticipates higher inflation and lower interest rates, which could benefit potential homebuyers. Román emphasizes the impact of politics on the economy and stresses the importance of understanding the human story behind economic data.

via Daily Mail|
#belinda-roman#economic-forecasting#economics
business1 year ago

"Recession Predictions: Where Did Economists Go Wrong?"

Economists predicted a recession for the U.S. economy, but it never materialized. Despite widespread expectations of a downturn due to high inflation, the economy grew by 3.1 percent in 2023, with unemployment remaining low and consumers continuing to spend. The unexpected resilience has led to a reassessment of economic forecasting models and a recognition of the challenges in predicting economic outcomes, particularly in the aftermath of unprecedented events like the pandemic. While some factors such as government support and a strong job market contributed to the economy's resilience, the disconnect between predictions and reality has prompted economists to reevaluate their understanding of growth and inflation dynamics.

via The New York Times|
#business#economic-forecasting#economy
economics2 years ago

The Perpetual Debate: Recession Looming or Not?

Neil Dutta, head of economics at Renaissance Macro Research, challenges the constant predictions of a recession, arguing that clinging to dire predictions in the face of contradictory evidence is misguided. He sees positives in the current economic landscape, including steady employment growth and cooling consumer price inflation, which is giving consumers more spending power. While he doesn't see a recession as imminent, he suggests staying cautious and acknowledges the Fed's belief that a period of below-trend growth is required to address inflation. For investors, broad market funds like the Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF can offer exposure to equities without betting heavily on specific sectors.

via Benzinga|
#economic-forecasting#economics#inflation