CoreLogic predicts that home prices will drop in several U.S. cities, particularly in the South, over the next year. Cities like Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL, and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, have a "very high" risk of price declines. Nationwide, high interest rates are slowing the real estate market, with sales of both new and previously occupied homes falling. The National Association of Realtors expects conditions to improve with a potential Federal Reserve rate cut later this year.
CoreLogic predicts a significant drop in home prices in several U.S. cities, particularly in the South, by spring 2025. Cities like Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville, FL, and Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell, GA, are at high risk. Nationwide, the growth in home prices is expected to slow due to high interest rates, impacting home sales and affordability.
CoreLogic projects a 2.5% nationwide increase in home prices through November 2024, with some cities like Redding, California and Fairbanks, Alaska expecting more than double that growth. The top 20 cities with the highest forecasted price growth are listed, while Florida dominates the top five metro areas likely to see home price reductions. Despite lower mortgage rates, high demand and limited supply continue to drive prices up, with the National Association of Realtors Chief Economist emphasizing that a significant increase in supply is needed to slow down price appreciation.
A study by CoreLogic projects a 2.5% nationwide increase in home prices through November 2024, with some cities like Redding, CA and Fairbanks, AK forecasted to experience more than double that growth. Despite soaring mortgage rates, competition and housing prices have remained high due to pent-up demand and inventory shortages. The top 20 cities where home prices are expected to grow most in 2024 were listed, while Florida dominates the top five metro areas with the highest likelihood of home price reductions. The outlook for home buyers remains challenging due to limited supply, with experts noting that only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation.
CoreLogic projects a 2.5% nationwide increase in home prices through November 2024, with some cities like Redding, California and Fairbanks, Alaska expecting more than double that growth. Despite soaring mortgage rates, competition and housing prices have remained high, driven by pent-up demand and inventory shortages. The top 20 cities where home prices are expected to grow most in 2024 have been listed, while Florida dominates the top five metro areas with the highest likelihood of home price reductions. The outlook for home buyers remains challenging due to limited supply, with experts noting that only a dramatic rise in supply will dampen price appreciation.
A new forecast suggests that while home prices are expected to appreciate by 2.5% nationally in 2024, residential real estate in 20 U.S. cities could see pricing gains of at least double that rate, with Redding, California projected to see the greatest increase at 7.3%. However, a handful of cities, particularly in Florida and Georgia, are at risk of price declines, with some facing a 70% chance of a price slump due to previous significant pricing gains during the pandemic.
Detroit surpassed Miami as the fastest-appreciating housing market in the US, with a year-over-year home price increase of 8.7% as of November 2023, according to CoreLogic. The US housing market overall saw a 5.2% year-over-year increase in November, despite a rise in mortgage rates, leading to a decline in housing affordability. Miami, which had been the highest-appreciating market for 16 months, attracted new residents for its warm weather, cost of living, and tax breaks. The increase in mortgage rates has led to a surge in cash sales in cities like New York, with 68% of wealthy buyers paying cash for homes to navigate the high rates.
Home prices surged 5.2% nationally in November, with the Northeast leading the gains and states like Rhode Island, Connecticut, and New Jersey seeing the strongest growth. Detroit surpassed Miami with an 8.7% annual price gain, marking the first time it has beaten Miami in 16 months. The surge is attributed to pent-up demand, low mortgage rates, and prolonged inventory shortage. While Detroit's home prices are among the most affordable, they are considered overvalued compared to local income levels. Overall, the housing market's future trajectory will depend on supply and demand dynamics.
CoreLogic's U.S. Home Price Insights report for 2024 identifies several American cities, including Cape Coral-Fort Myers, Florida, as having a high risk of home price declines in the coming year. Other areas at risk include Youngstown-Warren-Boardman (Ohio and Pennsylvania), Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Roswell (Georgia), West Palm Beach-Boca Raton-Delray Beach, and Deltona-Daytona-Beach-Ormond Beach (Florida). While CoreLogic does not project actual price declines, their assessment serves as a barometer for potential market adjustments. A separate report by Realtor.com also predicts home price declines in 20 U.S. cities, with Austin, Texas, expected to see the largest dip of 12.2 percent in 2024. Factors contributing to the expected downturn include higher mortgage rates, evolving economic conditions, and shifting buyer behavior.
Lakeland-Winter Haven, Florida, has been ranked as the second most at-risk metropolitan area for a home price decline in the next year, according to a report by CoreLogic. Factors such as overvalued home prices, unemployment, income growth, and delayed mortgage payments were considered in the analysis. However, some local real estate experts disagree, citing high demand, low supply, and a booming economy in the area. CoreLogic also noted that there are 43 other metropolitan areas in the US with similar risk levels.
Home price growth in the US slowed to its lowest levels since 2012, with an increase of 2% in April, according to CoreLogic. This marks the 135th consecutive month of annual gains but the sixth straight month of single-digit increases. Factors such as mortgage rate volatility and a lack of for-sale homes have contributed to the cooling of home price growth. CoreLogic predicts that home price growth in 2023 will fall in line with the historical 4% annual average. However, they also forecast a 4.6% year-over-year increase from April 2023 to April 2024. The Federal Reserve's pause in interest rate hikes may be temporary, as Chairman Jerome Powell hinted at the possibility of further rate increases before the end of 2023.
Rental costs in the US have surged 26% since the pandemic, driven by a shortage of affordable housing and strong demand. However, rents are slowing down, with single-family rent growth declining for the twelfth straight month, according to CoreLogic. Charlotte, North Carolina, saw the fastest rental increase in April, with rents climbing nearly 7% YoY. Other cities with the fastest rental increases include Boston, Orlando, Chicago, New York, St. Louis, Minneapolis, Tucson, Houston, and Honolulu. For renters with a budget of $1,500 a month, the biggest bang for their buck can be found in cities like Wichita, Toledo, Oklahoma City, Tulsa, and Memphis.
The average US homeowner with a mortgage has less home equity than they did a year earlier, according to real estate data tracker CoreLogic. Homeowner equity, which represents the current value of the property minus what’s still owed on the mortgage, tends to rise and fall along with home prices. The slowdown in the housing market has led to the first annual drop in US homeowner equity since 2012, with US homeowners with a mortgage losing a combined $108.4bn in home equity between Q1 2022 and Q1 2023, a drop of 0.7%, according to CoreLogic.
For the first time in over a decade, US homeowners have lost equity in their homes, with an average drop of 0.7% or $5,400 per homeowner. However, Ohio homeowners saw a $10,000 gain in equity. Home equity closely follows home prices, but is slightly different. Equity is the value of the home after the mortgage balance is subtracted. Despite the rare decline in home equity, CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp noted that the sharp rise in home prices during the pandemic has largely elevated equity in recent years.
Home prices in the US increased by 5.5% YoY in January, but dropped by 0.2% MoM, according to CoreLogic data. The company projected a 3.1% YoY increase in home prices from January 2023 to January 2024. Florida, Maine, and South Carolina saw the highest price increases. The continued shortage of for-sale homes is likely to keep price declines modest, which are projected to top out at 3% peak to trough. The average rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased through February and into March, according to Freddie Mac data.
