El Niño's Impact on Climate: What to Expect in 2023 and Beyond
TL;DR Summary
The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has declared the beginning of an El Niño pattern, but its connection to Northern California's winter precipitation is relatively loose. Forecasters predict a 56% chance of a "strong" El Niño and an 86% chance of a "moderate" El Niño. Historical data shows that strong El Niño patterns have a 70% chance of resulting in at least average precipitation in Northern California. However, there are still many other factors that determine the region's winter precipitation.
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