US Wage Growth Moderates, But Still Outpaces Expectations

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Source: The New York Times
US Wage Growth Moderates, But Still Outpaces Expectations
Photo: The New York Times
TL;DR Summary

The Employment Cost Index, a measure of pay and benefits closely watched by Federal Reserve officials, grew at a moderate pace of 1.1% in the third quarter of 2023, slightly faster than expected. While this marks a deceleration from rapid gains in 2022, wage growth remains strong compared to pre-pandemic levels. The trend presents a challenge for the Federal Reserve as rapid wage gains can fuel inflation. However, economists expect the Fed to hold interest rates steady as they wait for the labor market to continue normalizing. The labor market's cool-down has been bumpy, with job gains slowing but remaining faster than expected. If pay growth continues to calm while job gains remain solid, it would suggest an improving supply of applicants and a slowly balancing labor market.

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