Artemis 2 risk numbers remain elusive as NASA hedges on exact odds
TL;DR Summary
NASA says it cannot provide a precise probabilistic risk figure for Artemis 2 due to limited data from the program’s early phase. Officials cite historical estimates and the NASA Office of Inspector General’s figures—roughly a 1-in-30 overall risk for a crewed lunar mission and about 1-in-40 for lunar operations—but caution that small data samples make such numbers uncertain. Artemis 2, slated for April with four astronauts on a 10-day journey around the Moon, represents a high-uncertainty risk scenario as NASA advances the moon program.
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- NASA to Share Artemis II Flight Readiness Review Update NASA (.gov)
- NASA’s Artemis II Moon Mission Daily Agenda NASA (.gov)
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