Half of U.S. Adults Could Be Obese by 2035, New Projections Show

A UW-led JAMA study analyzing NHANES, BRFSS and Gallup data (over 11 million participants) projects obesity will reach about 126 million American adults, or 46.9%, by 2035, up from 42.5% in 2022. The study highlights stark disparities by race, gender and state—Black and Latino women and Latino men are among the most affected, including in California—driven by systemic inequalities in food access and healthcare. California’s Medi-Cal changes reducing coverage for obesity treatment add a new barrier, while state policies and local initiatives are cited as efforts to slow the rise.