"Assessing the Future of Natural Gas Prices Amid Market Volatility"

The U.S. Energy Information Administration forecasts that the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price will average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but remain below $3.00 per MMBtu. This is due to faster growth in demand than supply in 2024, with supply remaining relatively flat. In 2025, supply and demand are expected to grow at similar rates, leading to high natural gas inventories. The increase in U.S. natural gas supply is expected to come from domestic production, particularly in the Permian region. Natural gas consumption is projected to grow in all sectors except the industrial sector in 2024, driven by domestic consumption and exports in 2025. U.S. natural gas exports are dependent on the timing of new LNG export terminals, with capacity additions expected to continue despite a pause on export determinations to non-free trade agreement countries.