Kiel Study Finds US Consumers Bear Nearly All Tariff Costs

A Kiel Institute study finds Americans shoulder about 96% of Trump-era tariff costs, with importers and consumers paying the bulk while foreign exporters mostly keep prices steady. The research notes tariff revenue of about $195 billion in fiscal year 2025 and estimates households paid roughly $758 per adult last year. It highlights deadweight losses, higher consumer prices, and disrupted supply chains, and offers four reasons why foreign suppliers haven’t offset costs. While some findings suggest tariffs could modestly curb inflation, the dominant takeaway is that tariffs act as a consumption tax on Americans.