Goldman Sachs: US recession risk slashed to 15% within next year

Goldman Sachs has revised its forecast for the likelihood of a US recession in the next 12 months, lowering it from 20% to 15%. The decision was based on positive inflation and labor market data, with expectations of continued solid job growth and rising real wages. The investment bank also believes that the drag from monetary policy tightening will diminish and eventually vanish by early 2024. Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve to keep interest rates unchanged in its upcoming policy meeting, with a gradual reduction of 25 basis points per quarter starting in the second quarter of 2024.