Consumption fuels U.S. growth in 2025, with AI acting as a supporting role

Analyses show U.S. GDP growth in 2025 was driven primarily by consumer spending, with AI-related capital expenditures ranking a distant second. Adjusted for imports, AI’s net contribution to growth averaged 0.4–0.5 percentage points (roughly 20–25% of growth excluding imports), while software and computers were AI’s biggest GDP contributors rather than data centers. Some analysts argue AI’s impact on GDP is overstated. Quarterly data later in 2025 showed strong growth (Q3 at 4.3% annualized) despite a negative Q1, with Q2’s pace in between. Looking ahead to 2026, consumption is expected to remain resilient, aided by AI investments, possible Fed rate cuts, and unemployment stabilization tied to slower immigration; productivity and job creation will be key watchpoints.