China’s Growth Gamble: Innovation, Exports, and a Slow Consumption Lift

Beijing’s post-property-collapse strategy centers on innovation and high-end manufacturing to achieve “high-quality” growth, but domestic consumption remains weak (about 40% of GDP in 2024), and the social safety net is underfunded amid an aging population. With deficits rising and tax revenue slipping despite growth, China relies on exports and industrial upgrading while retaining old, labor-intensive sectors. If demand doesn’t pick up, overcapacity could depress profits and public finances, potentially hurting both China and its trading partners even as China’s share of global manufacturing climbs and sparks tensions with other economies.