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Yield Curve Inversion

All articles tagged with #yield curve inversion

"Bond Market Signals Potential Trouble for Stocks Amid Strong Friday Performance"
financeeconomics1 year ago

"Bond Market Signals Potential Trouble for Stocks Amid Strong Friday Performance"

Despite the U.S. economy's strong performance, the Treasury bond market is signaling a potential recession, with the yield curve between 10-year and 3-month Treasury bonds inverting, a historical precursor to economic downturns. While past recessions have seen significant declines in the stock market, investors are advised to stay invested and avoid attempting to time the market, as historical data shows that the stock market tends to rebound before recessions end, and long-term returns have remained positive despite economic downturns.

"Experts Warn of Looming Recession as Yield Curve Steepens"
finance2 years ago

"Experts Warn of Looming Recession as Yield Curve Steepens"

Fidelity Investments' Jurrien Timmer warns that the stock market may experience big drawdowns in the months to come as the Federal Reserve nears the end of the rate-hike cycle and the days of peak yield curve inversion have probably come and gone. Timmer studied the 3-month versus 10-year inversion and found that the worst performance was after the inversion in 2007, when the S&P 500 drawdown reached as much as 51%. The market held up for a bit, but then there were big drawdowns in the months that followed.