Recession Warning Signs: Economists Predict Impending Economic Downturn
Economists are generally accurate in predicting recessions for the upcoming quarter, but their precision declines as the forecast extends further into the future, according to a study by economist Jeremy Majerovitz. While economists have been predicting a recession for months, their forecasts become less reliable the farther out they predict. A survey of economists at the Philadelphia Fed gives a 34.4% chance of a recession in the fourth quarter, which aligns with Majerovitz's findings. However, there is still significant uncertainty about future economic conditions, and accurate predictions become more challenging as the timeframe increases.