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Polling Accuracy

All articles tagged with #polling accuracy

politics1 year ago•0 min saved

Renowned Pollster Ann Selzer Retires Amid Iowa Poll Controversy

Renowned Iowa pollster J. Ann Selzer is retiring from elections polling after 25 years, having announced her decision in a guest column for the Des Moines Register. Known for her work on the Iowa Poll since 1997, Selzer's recent presidential projection was notably off by 16 percentage points, drawing criticism from right-wing commentators. Despite this, she remains a trusted figure in Iowa polling, and her retirement had been planned for over a year.

via The Washington Post|

#ann-selzer #des-moines-register #iowa-poll

politics1 year ago•4 min saved

Pollsters Scramble to Explain Missed Predictions in US Election

The 2024 US presidential election saw Donald Trump secure a decisive victory over Kamala Harris, raising questions about the accuracy of pre-election polls. While national polls underestimated Trump's support, particularly in battleground states, the polling errors were not significantly large. However, in some regions, Trump's support was notably underestimated, highlighting potential blind spots in polling methodologies. Experts suggest that reliance on outdated models and assumptions about voter behavior contributed to these inaccuracies, and the polling industry faces challenges such as declining response rates and rising distrust in media.

via BBC.com|

#donald-trump #kamala-harris #politics

politics1 year ago•4 min saved

Kamala Harris Emerges as Frontrunner in 2024 Election Predictions

As polls open, Vice President Kamala Harris is predicted to win the election by most major forecasters, with Nate Silver's model giving her a slight edge in the Electoral College. Harris is projected to secure 271 votes to Trump's 267, marking a shift from earlier predictions favoring Trump. Other forecasters like FiveThirtyEight and The Economist also give Harris a narrow advantage. However, some forecasters, such as DecisionDeskHQ and J.L. Partners, predict a Trump victory. The race remains extremely close, with recent polls showing the candidates within 1-2 points of each other, and experts caution that polling errors could significantly impact the outcome.

via Newsweek|

#donald-trump #election-forecast #electoral-college