The US dollar weakened slightly after the latest PCE data showed monthly inflation cooling, while gold gained momentum. Both Core and Headline y/y PCE figures met expectations, but the m/m Core reading was slightly below forecasts. The US dollar index fell but remains supported by technical levels, while gold rose by 0.50% and is approaching near-term resistance.
Annex Wealth Management Chief Economist and Strategist Brian Jacobsen warns investors to remain cautious about companies using artificial intelligence as a gimmick, advising them to thoroughly investigate claims of AI usage. He suggests that the upcoming PCE report and the Nvidia-driven AI hype bubble could lead to a correction in high-flying stocks. Additionally, Warren Buffett's warning about the lack of transformational deals for Berkshire Hathaway signals potential opportunities for smaller and mid-cap companies.
The Core PCE inflation rate has risen at its slowest pace since spring 2021, with a mild 0.2% increase in December. The Dow has gained following the release of this key PCE data, which comes after the S&P 500 achieved its fifth record close of 2024.
The Euro has found some relief against the US Dollar, defending the psychological level of 1.0500 as the Greenback weakens. German inflation showed positive signs, but Eurozone economic sentiment continues to decline. US data, including jobless claims and GDP, remains resilient, but cracks are starting to show in the housing market. The focus now turns to the PCE data and EU inflation flash number, which could have a significant impact on the market. From a technical perspective, EUR/USD is showing mixed signals, with a potential bullish engulfing candle close but also a potential death cross forming. Retail traders are currently net-long on EUR/USD.
Stocks rebounded as the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index showed a continued cooling in inflation, with prices rising 4.1% on a "core" basis in June, the least since September 2021. Workers most at risk from AI feel the least threatened by it, according to a Pew Research Center analysis. Mortgage rates in the US edged closer to 7%, exacerbating affordability problems for homebuyers. Procter & Gamble, Intel, Roku, and Exxon Mobil were among the trending stocks. Consumer sentiment hit its highest level since October 2021, while stocks opened higher following the Federal Reserve's rate hike. The latest PCE data showed prices grew at their slowest pace in nearly two years in June. Stock futures pointed to a rebound ahead of the release of the Fed's preferred inflation measure.