Ukrainian missile strikes on Russian oil infrastructure have severely disrupted Russia's oil supply, causing fuel shortages and impacting the economy, as Ukraine targets key sites to weaken Russia's war effort.
While the current situation in the Middle East does not mirror the 1973 oil crisis, there are concerns about the potential for higher oil prices. Unlike in 1973, Arab countries are not attacking Israel together, and the oil market has spare production capacity. However, if Israel concludes that Hamas acted on Iran's instructions, oil prices could rise significantly. Additionally, if the US enforces sanctions against Iran, it could push oil prices to $100 a barrel or higher. Russia and Venezuela could benefit from any Middle East oil crisis, and the Saudi-Israeli diplomatic deal and Saudi-Iranian rapprochement are casualties of the conflict. The US can tap its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to limit the impact on gasoline prices.