Russia’s Diplomacy as Warfare: From Minsk to Abu Dhabi
The article argues that Moscow treats peace talks as a front in war, leveraging a modernized Gromyko/KGB playbook: stall, push maximal demands, blame others, and use negotiation time to rearm. It highlights three core strategies—zero-sum competition, avoidance by sidelining key players, and punitive self-damage—to punish Ukraine while weakening Western leverage. Western rational-choice models misread Russia’s emphasis on intangibles like pride and fear, enabling Moscow to win on the battlefield while talks continue to stall. The Minsk agreements are cited as a trap; and the pattern—repeating from Georgia and Moldova to Syria—shows diplomacy being weaponized as hybrid warfare to achieve strategic victory rather than genuine peace.
