"US Inflation Outlook: Fed Faces Data Wild Card Ahead of Expected Pause"
A chart from EY Parthenon's Greg Daco illustrates how monthly US inflation numbers migrate into year-over-year data. May and June will see lower year-over-year readings with gasoline prices down 30% y/y, but even with +0.2% readings, inflation will stay close to 3%, rather than falling to the Fed's target of 2%. The Fed will be looking for numbers in the +0.1-+0.2% range for many months before they signal preparedness to cut rates.