CryptoQuant analyst Ki Young suggests considering several factors before buying Bitcoin at $100K, including the potential regret of missing out if it rises to $145K, readiness for a bear market, and a long-term holding commitment. The $100K level is crucial due to a high concentration of open positions, indicating strong market interest. Analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $145K or even $160K if it maintains momentum and favorable conditions persist.
Bitcoin's recent price surge, reaching an all-time high of $84,929, is driven by strong buying pressure and elevated Coinbase premiums, indicating positive medium-term sentiment. However, CryptoQuant analyst BaroVirtual warns that high premiums and leveraged retail positions could lead to short-term market pullbacks. The analyst highlights the risk of market corrections due to aggressive trading on some Asian exchanges. Despite a slight price correction, Bitcoin's bullish momentum suggests potential for further gains, possibly reaching $100,000, as noted by crypto analyst Javon Marks.
Bitcoin has dipped below the $70,000 mark, trading at $68,581, but analysts suggest holders remain optimistic. The MVRV (Market Value to Realized Value) ratio indicates potential for future price surges, with targets between $95,000 and $120,000 if market conditions improve. Despite stable retail interest and a recent decline in whale transactions, the MVRV trend and historical cycles suggest Bitcoin's upward trajectory could continue, contingent on increased market activity and buying momentum.
Bitcoin experienced a 15% correction from its all-time high of $73,700 as miners, whales, and large investors sold their BTC to realize profits, leading to an overheated-bull phase flagged by the Bull-Bear Market Cycle Indicator. Despite the correction, analysts at CryptoQuant believe the bull cycle is not over, citing valuation metrics and investment flows that are not yet at levels consistent with past market tops. Large short-term holders' cost basis is at the $58,000-$60,000 level, and around 48% of Bitcoin investments currently come from short-term holders, indicating that the bull cycle top has not been reached.
U.S. Bitcoin spot ETFs saw a record-breaking $1 billion in daily net inflows, with total net inflows reaching $11.1 billion in just two months, driving Bitcoin to new all-time highs. Analysts warn that the relentless demand for ETFs, which now hold nearly 4% of the entire BTC supply, could lead to a liquidity crisis in the Bitcoin market within six months, as available supply may not meet overwhelming demand. While ETF buying demand continues, Bitcoin exchanges have experienced stronger outflows than inflows, and data around Bitcoin miners is mixed, with some indicators suggesting selling pressure and others showing an increase in Bitcoin holdings by major miners.
Bitcoin's surge to $52,000 is attributed to strong U.S. investor demand, as indicated by the highest price premium on Coinbase in 9 months, according to CryptoQuant data. The majority of the price appreciation occurred during U.S. trading hours, with modest gains during Asian and European sessions. The so-called "Coinbase Premium Index" reached its highest level since May 2023, suggesting significant buying pressure from U.S. investors. Bitcoin's market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion for the first time since December 2021, with spot BTC ETFs attracting nearly $500 million in daily net inflows.
CryptoQuant predicts that if the current trend of inflows related to spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) continues, Bitcoin prices could reach $112,000 this year, with a "worse case" scenario of at least $55,000. CEO Ki Young Ju based these predictions on the effect of inflows on Bitcoin's market capitalization and a metric ratio that historically indicates if prices are "overvalued" or "undervalued." Spot Bitcoin ETFs have already amassed over 192,000 Bitcoin in holdings since their launch less than a month ago, attracting billions of dollars from investors seeking exposure to Bitcoin without direct ownership.
Despite the early success of U.S. listed spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for Bitcoin, downside risks remain as prices fell 15% post-listing, with outflows from Grayscale’s Bitcoin Trust contributing to the pressure. ETF volume data from BlackRock, Fidelity, and Bitwise crossed $500 million, indicating demand from regulated funds and professional traders. However, on-chain analysis firm CryptoQuant warns that on-chain metrics and indicators suggest the price correction may not be over, with significant selling by short-term traders and large bitcoin holders. Coinbase, the custodian for several ETF providers, saw record-high OTC desk transfer volumes, but the market sentiment remains cautious as spot sales seem to dampen any strength in an upside.
On-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant believes that the upcoming Shanghai upgrade for Ethereum, which will allow the unstaking of Ethereum on April 12th, is unlikely to trigger above-normal selling pressure. This is because most of the staked Ethereum is currently at a loss, meaning that the selling pressure is likely to be lower than expected. Additionally, a significant portion of the deposits made by the Lido pool is currently underwater. Over 16.5 million Ethereum is currently staked, which is approximately 14% of the total supply.
Bitcoin's price has surged past $28,000, gaining 3% in the last 24 hours, as investors seek a safer bet in cryptos amid a crisis of confidence in the global financial system. While liquidity remains an issue, banks in Asia are stepping up and providing fiat pipelines for crypto. However, the rally may not last long as support may not be there fundamentally, and technical aspects suggest a correction toward $25,000 in the near term.
