Global temperatures are projected to surpass the key climate threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels as early as next year, according to the UK's Met Office. This rapid warming, which is happening faster than expected, could lead to catastrophic sea level rise and extreme heat affecting 2 billion people. Despite the urgency, world leaders at the UN Climate Change Conference in Dubai are still emphasizing the 1.5C target, even though some scientists and activists believe it is no longer achievable. The focus should shift towards discussing how to bring global temperatures back below the threshold instead of preventing it altogether. Efforts to cut emissions are falling short, and the planet is on track to consistently exceed the 1.5C threshold within seven years if emission levels remain unchanged. The speed at which the planet is approaching the 1.5C mark is raising alarm, and drastic emissions cuts are needed to meet the target, which is politically challenging. The COP28 conference is increasingly recognizing the need for funding adaptation and addressing the losses and damages caused by climate change.
A new study warns that the world will likely exceed the internationally agreed temperature limit for global warming by early 2029 if it continues burning fossil fuels at the current rate. The study attributes the accelerated timeline to progress made in cleaning up aerosol pollution, which slightly cools the planet but masks the effects of burning coal, oil, and natural gas. The study calculates the remaining "carbon budget" and sets it at 250 billion metric tons, leaving only five years and a couple of months to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, as outlined in the 2015 Paris agreement.
A new study suggests that by early 2029, the Earth will likely breach the key warming threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) if the current rate of fossil fuel consumption continues. The study calculates the remaining "carbon budget" and indicates that the world has approximately five years left to limit warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius. The risks of catastrophic consequences, such as coral reef loss, irreversible ice sheet melting, water shortages, heatwaves, and extreme weather-related deaths, increase beyond this threshold. The study attributes the accelerated timeline to progress in reducing aerosol pollution, which slightly cools the planet but masks the effects of greenhouse gas emissions. While achieving the 1.5-degree limit is technically possible, it remains politically challenging.
The World Meteorological Organization warns that global temperatures could temporarily breach the 1.5 degree Celsius benchmark outlined in the Paris Climate Accords in the next five years due to the overlap of El Niño and human-caused climate change. The WMO predicts a 66% chance of this happening and a 98% likelihood that at least one of the next five years will be the warmest on record. The warming climate has been linked to more extreme weather patterns, wildfires, and increased areal coverage of land burned.
