Nvidia's stock is recovering after a recent dip following earnings reports, with analysts optimistic about its growth prospects, especially regarding Chinese sales and AI server ramp-up, amidst a mixed performance in the chip sector.
The tech-heavy S&P 500 has been down, with chip-making powerhouse Nvidia experiencing a 15% dip in share price over the past month. F/m Investments President Alex Morris suggests that the recent decline is a natural breather for momentum-driven tech stocks like Nvidia, emphasizing that geopolitical events are not the sole catalyst but provide an opportunity for investors to reevaluate their positions.
TSMC's Taipei-listed shares dropped over 6% following its first-quarter earnings report, where it maintained its capex and full-year revenue guidance and projected a gradual recovery for the chip sector. The company's forecast for second-quarter sales to potentially rise by 30% was overshadowed by its unchanged capital spending plans and a lowered outlook for the global semiconductor industry, leading to market concerns and a decline in stock value.
TSMC's Taipei-listed shares dropped over 6% following its first-quarter earnings report, where it maintained its capex and full-year revenue guidance and indicated a gradual recovery for the chip sector. The company forecasted a potential 30% rise in second-quarter sales due to demand for semiconductors used in AI applications, but left its capital spending plans unchanged and lowered its outlook for the global semiconductor industry and foundry sector. Analysts and investors expressed concerns over the company's profit expectations and the slower recovery in logic semiconductor demand for 2024, leading to a broader market decline of over 3.5%.
Analyst Ben Reitzes of Melius Research predicts a 25% stock gain for AMD, likening the company to a "mini-Nvidia" with its rapidly unfolding AI story and potential for significant revenue growth in the AI sector. Reitzes raised the price target for AMD shares to $265 and expects substantial AI revenue in the coming years. Despite AMD's rise, he suggests holding onto Nvidia shares, noting that Nvidia's success is expanding the market and driving awareness for AI solutions. The total addressable market for AI accelerators is projected to be massive, with AMD's potential now appearing more credible given Nvidia's figures.
Nvidia's stock initially surged but then dramatically reversed to a loss, marking a rare occurrence not seen in over two years. Analysts attribute the reversal to exhaustion in the semiconductor sector, which has been overbought and experiencing a frenzied tech-market mindset reminiscent of 1999 and 2000. While some chip stocks saw positive momentum, the broader chip sector moved lower, impacting the PHLX Semiconductor Index and major indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite.
Qualcomm reported strong quarterly profit, with revenue meeting expectations, as the company highlighted its position in the AI wave, particularly in the smartphone market with its Snapdragon technology. Despite the positive earnings, Qualcomm's shares initially rose in after-hours trading but later fell as the revenue outlook for the current quarter was in line with expectations. The company's management remains optimistic about the future, emphasizing the potential of its Snapdragon platforms and technology differentiation in various sectors, including handsets, automotive, PC, extended reality, and industrial Internet of Things.
Analyst Pierre Ferragu of New Street Research upgraded AMD's stock to buy with a $215 target price for late 2024, citing the company's potential for significant upside due to its dominance in AI architectures, structural scarcity, and attractive valuation. He believes AMD is well-positioned to grow revenues by more than 20% per year over the next four years, even if market shares against Intel slow or stabilize. Ferragu also highlighted Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. Ltd. as a "de-risked" option in the chip sector.
China's recent restrictions on metal exports are causing ripple effects across the chip sector, as the country is a major supplier of raw materials used in semiconductor production. The move is expected to disrupt global supply chains and potentially lead to higher prices for chips, exacerbating the ongoing global chip shortage. This development highlights the interconnectedness of the global tech industry and the vulnerability of supply chains to geopolitical tensions.
AMD and Broadcom shares suffered six consecutive sessions of losses, while Intel shares had their worst week in about a year. The chip sector declined 4.5% for the week, its worst since April 6. AMD shares are still up 69.9% year to date, while Broadcom's were up 47%, compared with a 38.5% gain on the SOX index, a 13.3% advance by the S&P 500 index, and a 28.9% rally by the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite Index.
The stock market rally retreated on Tuesday due to debt-ceiling fears, with the Dow Jones closing below the 50-day line. President Joe Biden and congressional leaders held fresh debt-ceiling talks, but no breakthrough is imminent. Meanwhile, Tesla held its annual shareholder meeting, with CEO Elon Musk announcing that the company will deliver production Cybertrucks this year. Dow Jones futures rose slightly after hours, with the chip sector showing renewed strength and improving breadth.