Near-term inflation bets spike to four-year high as oil shock widens
One-year breakeven inflation jumped to 4.62%—the highest since June 2022—while the two-year rose to 3.18% and the five-year to 2.58%, as Middle East tensions push near-term inflation expectations higher and crude oil stays around $100 a barrel. The move signals persistent inflation concerns that could complicate Federal Reserve policy and weigh on retirees and markets.