2024 Election Forecasts: Who's Leading the Race to 270?
538's final forecasts for the 2024 U.S. elections indicate a highly competitive race for the presidency and the House of Representatives, with both being considered toss-ups. Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have nearly equal chances of winning the presidency, while Democrats have a slight edge in the House. However, Republicans are heavily favored to gain control of the Senate, with a 92% chance of winning. The forecasts highlight the uncertainty and potential for polling errors, suggesting a wide range of possible outcomes.