Tensions Rise as Venezuela Threatens Guyana's Sovereignty

The threat of a Venezuelan invasion of Guyana and annexation of its oil-rich Essequibo region could have significant implications for tanker shipping. Guyana has seen a rise in crude exports since offshore production began in 2019, with projections for further growth. However, if Venezuela were to invade, it would likely result in the reimposition and tightening of sanctions on Venezuela, leading to a reduction in oil production and exports from both countries. This would negatively impact Atlantic Basin exports and tanker demand. Additionally, the conflict would derail Guyana's burgeoning exports and push Venezuelan cargoes back to the "shadow fleet," while also leading to renewed U.S. sanctions. However, the overall impact on crude tanker demand would be limited, as U.S. and Brazilian exports are more significant.