"Global Impact: The Cost of a Chinese Invasion of Taiwan"

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan could cost the global economy US$10 trillion, equivalent to 10% of global GDP, with potential scenarios including a regional war drawing in the U.S. and a blockade severing Taiwan's trade with the world. The impact would lead to significant GDP declines for Taiwan, China, the U.S., and the world, surpassing losses from past crises such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the global financial crisis. If Taiwan were to face a blockade, the resulting global GDP losses would fall between the levels observed during the global financial crisis and the Gulf War.