Holiday-driven demand and exports lift China’s early-2026 momentum

China kicked off 2026 on firmer footing as consumption and production beat expectations: retail sales rose 2.8% year‑on‑year in Jan–Feb, helped by the Lunar New Year; industrial output climbed 6.3%; exports surged nearly 22%; fixed-asset investment excluding real estate rose 5.2% as infrastructure and manufacturing supported growth. Real estate remained weak with new-home prices down 3.2%. Geopolitical tensions and higher energy costs pose headwinds, but China’s energy supply is ample and policy makers have set a 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5%–5%.