Hormuz chokepoint could spark a global market shock

Rising tensions raise the risk of a Hormuz Strait shutdown, a route that handles about 25% of global oil and 20% of LNG. A closure could trigger global price spikes for crude, gas, and jet fuel, while fertilizer inputs—nearly a third of ammonia and half of urea production—face disruption, hitting farmers and food costs. The U.S. has floated energy-insurance and escort plans, and while markets can absorb short delays, a prolonged closure could cause demand destruction and broader inflation, even as the U.S. is less dependent on oil than in 1979.