Navigating Geopolitical Instability and a Packed Election Calendar in 2024: Insights from Swiss Re's Global Outlook

Geopolitical instability and a packed election calendar in 2024 are causing concern among strategists. Large-scale wars and pivotal elections across major global powers are expected to create a fraught geopolitical backdrop and greater divergence across key regions, leading to uncertainty and market volatility. Geopolitical tensions, including the Israel-Hamas conflict, China-Taiwan relations, and Russia-Ukraine conflict, are viewed as significant risks to the global economy. The International Monetary Fund predicts slower global growth in 2024, with stronger growth projected in the U.S. and large emerging markets, while China and the euro area are expected to struggle. Geopolitical conflicts and tensions are likely to depress growth and add to inflationary pressures. Supply chain fragmentation and investment in economic security are expected to continue, while opportunities may arise in sectors such as semiconductors, cybersecurity, and aerospace and defense technology.