The Fragile Future of the US Dollar as Global Reserve Currency

The dollar's status as the world's dominant currency is under scrutiny due to rivalry with China, fallout from Russia's war in Ukraine, and wrangling in Washington over the US debt ceiling. The dollar share of official FX reserves fell to a 20-year low of 58% in Q4 2022, according to IMF data. However, de-dollarisation would require a vast and complex network of exporters, importers, currency traders, debt issuers, and lenders to independently decide to use other currencies, making it unlikely. While there may not be a single dollar successor, mushrooming alternatives could create a multipolar world. The dollar's status is underpinned by the $23 trillion US Treasury market, viewed as a safe haven for money.