Stock Market's Quadrennial Pattern Hints at Major 2025 Shift

The S&P 500, a key indicator of the U.S. stock market, typically sees above-average returns in the 12 months following presidential elections, with a median return of 17% over the past four decades. Historical data suggests the index could rise 14% by November 2025, especially with Republicans controlling the presidency and Congress. While the economy shows strength with rising GDP and consumer sentiment, high stock valuations could pose risks if corporate earnings don't meet expectations. Investors should remain cautiously optimistic about 2025.