Oil’s Real Headache: A Global Glut Overshadows Geopolitics

Oil prices retreat after a geopolitics-driven spike as the market shifts back to a glut narrative: global crude supplies are seen exceeding demand, with Goldman Sachs trimming 2026 Brent forecasts and U.S. output growth slowing. The U.S. has partly taken over Venezuela’s oil industry via crude sales, weighing on prices, while disruptions near the Black Sea and sanctions on sanctioned producers add volatility. Kazakhstan’s output decline, the EU’s Russian oil price cap, and renewed talk of geopolitical risk coexist with expectations of ongoing supply growth from the EIA/IEA and OPEC’s pauses, alongside record Chinese imports. Traders increasingly believe there is too much oil in the world, making precise price predictions unreliable.