Geopolitics Remain Oil’s Hidden Price Driver, Even With Shale Power

OilPrice argues that geopolitical risk—especially U.S.-Iran tensions and the Strait of Hormuz—still poses a meaningful price threat despite U.S. shale. Five Scenarios from Rystad Energy show a spectrum from negotiated deals to wide conflict, with worst-case shocks potentially pushing Brent and WTI above $100 if Hormuz is disrupted; meanwhile global energy efficiency and storage could cushion some impacts. A potential deal with Iran would be bearish for oil prices, but the risk of escalation remains a key factor for markets.